Ungdomars benägenhet att ta körkort var tämligen konstant fram till 1990. Runt 1990 förändrades ungas beteende i många avseenden. Man bodde kvar hemma längre än tidigare, man etablerade sig senare och under sämre anställningsvillkor i arbetslivet, man studerade i högre grad och framförallt längre, man bildade familj senare (Salonen, 2003; SCB, 2005). Ett tecken i tiden var att man också väntade med att ta körkort. Litteratursökningar gav vid handen att knappast någon modell presenterats som beskriver körkortstagande. I denna studie har en tidigare, på VTI framtagen modell, fungerat som utgångspunkt. Separata modeller för benägenheten att ta körkort har skattats för varje åldersklass mellan 18 och 24 år. De förklarande faktorerna i modellerna är körkortskostnadsindex och andel av 24-åringarna som hade postgymnasial utbildning. I den officiella statistik som publiceras angående körkortstagande i olika åldrar, redovisas exempelvis andelen 18-åringar som har tagit körkort det kalenderår de fyllde 18 år. Vill man ha en uppfattning om hur många som tar körkort före sin 19-årsdag, krävs specialanalyser. Baserat på modellens resultat, kan en uppskattning göras, men i rapporten redovisas också en mer ambitiös ansats.

The propensity of young people to take driving licence was rather consistent up until 1990. Around 1990, the behaviour of young people changed in many respects. They continued living at home for a longer period of time, they became established later and with less favourable conditions of employment in working life, they studied to a greater extent and, above all, studied longer, they started families later. A sign of the times was that they also put off taking driving licence. Searches of the literature have shown that hardly any models have been presented that describe the taking of driving licence. A model produced earlier at VTI has functioned as a basis in this study. Separate models of the propensity to take driving licence have been estimated for each age group between 18 and 24. Independent variables in the model are a driving licence cost index and the proportion of 24-year olds who have post upper-secondary school education. Official statistics published concerning the taking of driving licence at various ages show, for example, the proportion of 18-year olds who have taken a driving licence during the calendar year in which they attain the age of 18. If one wants data regarding how many took a driving licence before their 19th birthday, special analyses are required. An estimation can be made based on the result of the model, but in the report a more ambitious attempt is also presented.