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A kinetics model of decision making and its application to an airplane accident Iijima, Tetsuo

By: Publication details: Maastricht Human factors: a system view of human, technology and organisation, 2010Description: s. 355-364ISBN:
  • 9789042303959
Subject(s): Bibl.nr: VTI 2010.0225Location: Abstract: This paper reports the case study of a near-miss in 2001 and collision in 2002 concerning the basis of human error factors and system. Two Japan Airlines, Boeing 747-400D and Douglas DC10-40, were involved in a near-miss at 36,000 feet high over Japan on 31st. of January, 2001. Particular concerns are that, for one, the controllers instructed the ascending Boeing to go down, and for the other, Boeing continued to descend, contrary to the ascending instruction by the Resolution Advisories (RA) of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). The Boeing suddenly dove to avoid a collision causing injuries to many passengers. The Tupolev 154M, en route from Moscow to Barcelona, collided with the Boeing 757-200 cargo jet over Überlingen, Germany on 1st. of July, 2002, killing all seventy one people aboard both airplanes. Approaching each other in midair both airplanes descended: Tupolev 154M followed instructions by air traffic controller in disregard of the RA increase, while Boeing 757-200 followed instructions issued by the TCAS. A conventional kinetics model is applied to the flight data and characterized by parameters related to decision making model. The process of the hard-pressed moment and a margin for risk aversion can be shown quantitatively.
Item type: Reports, conferences, monographs
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Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut Available

This paper reports the case study of a near-miss in 2001 and collision in 2002 concerning the basis of human error factors and system. Two Japan Airlines, Boeing 747-400D and Douglas DC10-40, were involved in a near-miss at 36,000 feet high over Japan on 31st. of January, 2001. Particular concerns are that, for one, the controllers instructed the ascending Boeing to go down, and for the other, Boeing continued to descend, contrary to the ascending instruction by the Resolution Advisories (RA) of the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). The Boeing suddenly dove to avoid a collision causing injuries to many passengers. The Tupolev 154M, en route from Moscow to Barcelona, collided with the Boeing 757-200 cargo jet over Überlingen, Germany on 1st. of July, 2002, killing all seventy one people aboard both airplanes. Approaching each other in midair both airplanes descended: Tupolev 154M followed instructions by air traffic controller in disregard of the RA increase, while Boeing 757-200 followed instructions issued by the TCAS. A conventional kinetics model is applied to the flight data and characterized by parameters related to decision making model. The process of the hard-pressed moment and a margin for risk aversion can be shown quantitatively.