Liikennejärjestelmän visiot 2100 : esiselvitys Tuominen, Anu ; Auvinen, Heidi ; Kanner, Heikki ; Ahlqvist, Toni
Utgivningsinformation: Esbo VTT. VTT tiedotteita 2555, 2010Beskrivning: 41 s. + bilAnnan titel:- Transport system visions 2100: pilot study
The aim of this pilot study was to explore the potential and feasibility of long-term visioning of the transport system, especially focusing on transport safety. A method for how to construct visions of the transport system over 50 years into the future was developed. The method was then put into practice, and an experimental vision for the year 2100 was created. As a foundation for this preliminary study, a literature survey was carried out to scan both the relevant future analysis methods and the publications on long-term futures studies, particularly those dealing with transportation. The main future analysis methods and tools that were selected and integrated into the vision building method, and further used while bringing the pilot vision into life, were transition management, PESTE analysis and futures table. The three-step vision building method consists of the following phases: (1) environmental scanning, (2) building up the futures table and the visions and (3) description of the visions. As an exercise, a small-scale vision was developed to describe the Finnish transport system in 2100, where few metropolitan areas define the competitiveness of the entire nation. The experiment proved the three-step method successful. As a result from the pilot study, a more extensive vision building project using the developed method can be recommended.