Short-Term Traffic Forecast System of Beijing Dong, Shen ; Li, Ruimin ; Sun, Li Guang ; Chang, Tang Hsien ; Lu, Huapu
Series: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board ; 2193Publication details: Washington DC Transportation Research Board, 2010Description: s. 116-123ISBN:- 9780309160681
| Cover image | Item type | Current library | Home library | Collection | Shelving location | Call number | Materials specified | Vol info | URL | Copy number | Status | Notes | Date due | Barcode | Item holds | Item hold queue priority | Course reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut | Available |
A short-term, real-time system was developed to support traffic management in Beijing. The requirements of a large amount of data and unstable traffic flow are the biggest challenges to such a system. The models and software framework thus should be effective enough to face these problems. The core of such a system is the short-term traffic flow forecast model. Rapid urbanization and transportation development in Beijing have led to traffic flow patterns with some unstable characteristics. The short-term forecast model for an online system thus was designed with the fast-paced trend in mind. The model considers historical data, real-time data, and space data, and it can be updated online. Thus a combined model was developed with three submodels: discrete Fourier transform model, autoregressive model, and neighborhood regression model. Weights of each submodel were based on forecast error. Both the historical forecast error and real-time forecast error were considered. The system was built on a browser-server structure to support combined forecast models. The framework, modules, and interface of this system are introduced in this paper.