Diss. Aachen : Stadt Region Land, 2010

The study aims at the indication of macro economic pros and cons of suburbanisation from the traffic point of view. The results are supposed to strengthen the understanding of urban planners and private households concerning macro economic consequences of suburbanisation. Based on several detailed surveys of households’ relocation and traffic attitudes performed in different regional sites the macro economic consequences of an uncontrolled migration from central urban to suburban areas are compared to those of influenced migration to different suburban locations. The research looks at the impact of the spatial pattern of settlements, working places, shopping areas and recreational opportunities. Traffic performance of individual traffic and public transportation in correlation to human traffic attitude patterns and spatial distances is detailed analysed. Furthermore impacts on traffic safety and environment are taken into consideration. The consumption of macro economic resources is determined for different scenarios and expressed in monetary values. The comparison of the different developments permits the quantification of the macro economic benefit of a controlled or avoided migration to suburban areas. The quantification of traffic impact of suburbanisation requires spatial consideration. The considerable decrease of inhabitants in the central urban area indicating tendencies of migration to suburban areas has been the reason to select the agglomeration Cologne out of a batch of other regions (e.g. Magdeburg; Leipzig; Münster). The agglomeration Cologne still represents a growing region in Germany (Zukunftatlas 2007); therefore suburbanisation can be assumed to continue in future. Furthermore a substantiated and comprehensive database is available. Data and information stem from the study „Akteure, Beweggründe, Triebkräfte der Suburbanisierung. Motive des Wegzugs – Einfluss der Verkehrsinfrastruktur auf das Ansiedlungs- und Mobilitätsverhalten“ 3 as well as from the study „StadtLeben - Integrierte Betrachtung von Lebensstilen, Raum- und Zeitstrukturen für die zukunftsfähige Gestaltung von Mobilität und Stadt“4. Based on the results of these studies action areas (types of urban areas in different regional locations) are defined and types of households with specific traffic attitudes dependent on the selected settlement sites are determined. The next step quantifies spatial, traffic and environmental effects in the rural suburban zone according to types of households and urban areas. This presents the basis to analyse the macro economic pros and cons of suburbanisation in general and of different strategies to influence the orientation of migration to suburban areas. Seven different settlement scenarios have been determined to reflect settlement developments with and without suburbanisation. A base scenario extrapolates an assumed suburbanisation into housing zones situated outside axes supported or formed by public transport. Six other scenarios demonstrate optional strategies to influence settlement development. One of these scenarios is supposed to demonstrate impacts in case suburbanisation does not take place at all (compact urban area). Another scenario shows the development of suburbanisation without any controlling by regional planners (scattered settlement). Further scenarios demonstrate the effects of different strategies to influence suburbanisation.