2010 update

The previous OPTIMAR report was delivered in the autumn of 2008. Shortly after the report was delivered, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and the financial crisis was a fact. This update reports on the impact of the financial crisis and the recession on European shipping and the European maritime transport system. On a global aggregated level, the impact of the recession on economic growth and trade can roughly be described by stating that two years have been “lost”. By the end of 2010, world GDP and trade in tonnes are back on the 2008 level. On a slightly disaggregated level, economic growth never fell in China or India. This has accelerated the shift of economic activity to the Far East. European exports are not expected to recover in the same pace as the World in total and thus will the pace of growth be lower in Europe. Much of the positive demand in the shipping sector stems out of China. Chinese economic growth, refining expansions, filling of strategic crude stocks and the government stimulus package have all combined to increase crude imports to China. Because of the cold weather, demand for clean petroleum products increased sharply last winter. The dry bulk market is uncertain for the major dry bulk commodities, such as iron ore and coal, in this and next year. Market sentiments are affected by expectations of soaring prices on coal, iron ore and grain. These expectations have triggered traders to take early positions.