Project: GRACE - Integrated oil spill response actions and environmental effects

GRACE WP 1 on Oil spill detection, monitoring, fate and distribution, includes a component
addressing an oil spill risk assessment methodology forming an important link in the chain of
prevention, detection, control, and mitigation of spills. A structured overall spill risk assessment
model for oil spills in Arctic and sub-arctic conditions is developed to be used in combination with
the SNEBA and its add-ons to identify response capacity needs, priority areas, and localization of
resources.
The Arctic spill risk profile is highly related to the type of ship fuel used and quantities carried as
cargo. The consumption of HFO in Arctic waters more than doubled from 2012 to 2015 but new
regulations amended to MARPOL Annex VI will enter into force 2020 and will likely be followed by
new Annex I regulations banning the use of HFO as ship fuel from 2023. This will significantly change
the spill risk profile and the conditions for effective spill response. New hybrid fuel oil qualities call
for tests and adaptation of existing response resources and spill recovery techniques.
The presented spill risk assessment methodology is based on well-established principles and a large
number studies and similar projects have been reviewed and subject for exchange of information.
Efficient big data processing of AIS data and integration of data from ship data bases combined with
statistics on ship accidents, enable credible predictions of accident probability, associated spill risk
and its geographical distribution in Arctic waters. Low traffic intensity, sparse empirical accident data
and highly varying ice conditions, however, makes Arctic prediction tools particularly challenging.
The presented spill risk assessment method is applied for two trial sites; one in Disko Bay in west
Greenland and one south of Helsinki in the Gulf of Finland. A set of Arctic factors is introduced in the
method to take into account risk influence imposed by the presence of sea ice and other
characteristic Arctic conditions.