Analysis and prediction of private car ownership and use in Denmark : part of the ELISA Project
Publication details: Kgs. Lyngby : DTU, Afdeling for Teknologi, Ledelse og Økonomi, 2020Description: 33 sISBN:- 9788793458918
This report presents the main findings from econometric analyses of car ownership and use levels for Denmark using historical macro data for the period 1976-2018. We model car ownership and use levels as a function of other economic variables including GDP and official indices for car purchase prices and vehicle operating costs. The models are estimated using dynamic time series methods to obtain estimates of long run cointegration relations and coefficients reflecting short-run dynamics. The car ownership model is estimated using an Error Correction Model (ECM), a model that assumes the existence of an equilibrium relationship that determines both short and long run relationships. It is formulated as the 2004 ART model, keeping the ratio between long run and short run elasticities equal for all explanatory variables.