Härtill 2 uppsatser

Lic.-avh. (sammanfattning) Luleå : Luleå tekniska universitet, 2021

To explore contrasting energy futures and to obtain insights into how an energy system (or specific energy subsectors) may evolve under different conditions, mathematical models as energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are commonly applied. However, ‘typical’ national-level models are not fully adapted to capture the characteristics of local (city) transportation, while previous city-level ESOM-based analyses have focused on the decarbonisation of local energy systems, thus omitting other local policy considerations such as air quality. Moreover, several studies have excluded transportation altogether. In this thesis, a generic city-level ESOM framework (TIMES-City) was adapted and applied to provide policy-relevant insights into the local transport sector’s anticipated transition to low-carbon energy sources and less polluting end-use applications. The underlying work rests on a systems analysis approach, building on careful consideration of the system’s overall performance and boundaries, understanding specific characteristics of the system involved, and identifying the challenges and opportunities facing local ‘system managers’, which have implications for model representation and for quantitative and qualitative modelling assumptions. Furthermore, the availability and quality of local transport, energy and emission statistics that are needed to calibrate models pose a significant challenge. Considerable effort was also taken to produce projections for future transport demand (a key model input) for the local level, building on lessons learnt and input data from traditional transport demand models. The model was then applied to two different cases in Sweden to explore potential conflicts and co-benefits between ambitious climate-change mitigation targets and deep cuts in AP emissions, and to assess the roles of local and regional governments in CO2 mitigation while considering ambitious national-scale policies.